3 irrefutable facts about the existence of profitable sports betting!
by
Zsoltfbo
April 19, 2025
in
Professional articles
Before starting a blog article like this, I think a lot about whether I'm approaching the topic from the right direction, whether what I want to convey or draw attention to is the right approach to reach people. And sports betting is a very divisive subject, with one part of people - mostly on Facebook - telling their side of the story with a big face, which boils down to the fact that sports betting is a game of chance, that the "bookies" always win, and the other half stubbornly insisting that they make a regular income and that anyone who doesn't follow them is "stupid". Neither camp is entirely right, but both have elements that are otherwise correct. In this blog article, I will attempt to bring these two camps somewhat closer together and by the end of the article, everyone will have a realistic view of professional sports betting.
1) THE SPORTS CENTRES LIMIT YOU!
First, let's look at the most basic question of whether it is possible to make a profit from sports betting. Before I get to the answer, it is important to note that the facts presented in this blog article are irrefutable because they are NOT subjective but ALL OBJECTIVE arguments. So it's not that I, Zsolt Lázár, have an opinion on something and I publish it, but I outline events and operating models that are independent of me, which can be verified and proven at any time.
The most basic proof that it is possible to make money from sports betting is that sportsbooks (the so-called "soft bookies" or also known as European sportsbooks such as Bet365, Unibet, WilliamHill etc.) limit the number of users (players) who are profitable. In practice, this means that the sports bettor receives a message from the sportsbook (usually because not all bureaus notify their customers) which is actually a template text and tells him that their staff has checked the sports bettor's account and has limited it.
What does such a restriction mean in practice? - Either the stakes are capped, so if a limited player used to bet 25 Euros on sports analytics, in the future he will only be able to bet between 0.40 and 2 Euros, or the odds are reduced so much that it is no longer worth betting with them. So as long as everyone else is seeing odds of 2.00 on a given betting option, the limited player will only see, say, 1.75, which is such a reduction in odds (multipliers) that it is pointless to bet on it because it will not be profitable in the long run.
Think about it, why would a sportsbook have a separate risk management group to assess how much of a "threat" a particular host poses to the sportsbook, i.e. how much money is being lost in the long run through its activities? It would be pointless to spend energy and money on this if there were no bettors who were profitable in the long term. In fact, when you sign up with a sportsbook and accept the detailed terms and conditions of participation, it is crystal clear that the bookmaker has the right to limit your account. Of course don't be scared, even if you only look at Bet365, which is the most well known bookie, they have 1 500 -2 000 Euro winnings available before the limitation hits, Tippmixpro and Vegas have no specific information when they limit, I have gone up to 1.7 million HUF (this is Tippmixpro) and they are not limited, so luckily we have the option. - Provided the sports bettor is careful to make picks with a wagering management that doesn't put them in the spotlight. That's why it doesn't matter what sports analytics one bets on, for example if one were to bet on table tennis(""brilliant"" idea, I see it on several sites, well let's just say they are irresponsible and in my opinion hurt their customers, they just cash in their accounts prematurely)
By the way, there is life outside of Tippmixpro (or any "soft" bookmaker), there are also bureaus (these are the "sharp" and/or "broker" bureaus, such as: SportMarket, AsianOdds, 18BetAsia, etc.) but it is harder to make a profit, as long as you can, it is worth using the "soft" bookmakers.
What does a message about such a limitation look like?
Unfortunately, I have not been able to open any of my Bet accounts, but I clearly remember the beginning of the messages, which always read "Our merchant team has reviewed your account.." I have searched the internet and found several pictures of it, so I can show you, in English:
In the left picture you can see the template text that is sent after the limitation - in this example it is Bet365 - and in the right picture you can see that the player wanted to bet on the limited account and entered more than the limitation allowed. To be precise, he could only bet 2.08 Euros and he wanted to bet 20 Euros. By the way, this 2.08 Euros is not bad, most minor league matches are usually not allowed to bet that much after the limitation.
2) CALCULATION OF THE MULTIPLIERS
The second argument that I think sufficiently supports my claim is the odds system. So if there were no system in sports betting and the narrative was true that because the "ball is round" anything could happen and that only sports betting companies would end up doing well, why do they spend so much effort - and not a little money - on trying to track the expected outcome of each betting option as accurately as possible?
The best example is oddsportal.com, a website that monitors the odds of sportsbooks. And it is good to see that sportsbooks are competing with each other to track the odds of each team, lowering their previously displayed odds (odds) if necessary, increasing them if necessary, or removing the betting option if necessary. If the narrative were true that sports betting is purely a game of chance, why is there such a complex system even in the calculation of odds? If the bookmakers win every time and it is not possible to achieve a 56-60% hit rate over the long term that mathematically makes the player a profit (with the right average odds), then why do they change the odds of the match even hourly? And in live betting, every 5-10 seconds.
In fact, the betting offices could even offer much higher odds to entice people to place bets as often and as high as possible, as they would have nothing to lose if they could not achieve a hit rate that would make the player profitable.
This snapshot illustrates how even in a lesser-known sporting event in Africa, the odds can change. You can see in the picture that on 16 April at 10:46 the bookmaker first offered odds on a home win, and from 22:40 onwards they kept changing. Of course, this picture is for illustrative purposes only and not a professional tipster's guess, as usually the movement is much more dense and larger for those tips.
3) DIGITALISATION!
The third - and final - argument gives a much more complex picture of sports betting sites than people usually have. Please read the Why can you make money betting on sports? What is the secret? my previous article, which describes the growth of the sports betting industry from the 2000s onwards, primarily in terms of supply, which has unwittingly given way to profitable operations within the sports betting industry. Before that, we couldn't talk about professional sports bettors, because if you remember, what came before that? Toto, and a few games on offer, with a few betting options and those were the most popular, well known games. Please be sure to read this article as well.
SUMMARY
Now that you have come to the end of this short blog article, you have been introduced to three facts that I believe are a true reflection of the real world of professional sports betting. And since I wrote at the beginning of the article that these would all be objective, I have deliberately not included any sports betting proofs that I have submitted. It may seem that I was only trying to prove one camp right, when I was not, as I included arguments used by both professional sports betting supporters and skeptics.
What do I propose? What kind of thinking should be adopted by someone who wants to start betting on professional sports?
The formula is terribly simple: you should not approach the lucrative sports betting model with undue trepidation, BUT you have to be wary of the stories you get on the internet, thereby taking the main truths of both camps (those for and against the profitable sports betting model) with you. Nor do you become naive when you see an opportunity, but you don't rule out the possibility that it could work. The question is always whether there is a guarantee and whether there are multiple sources and facts to support the model/activity will be the deciding factor.
And at FBO, I believe we are in a good position to do this, as we are the only company in Hungary to offer an actual money-back guarantee for our services.Conditions of participation)
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