Rothschild Group Situation Report - The state of basketball value bets
by
Zsoltfbo
April 19, 2025
in
Professional articles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5uns5ycHzA&t=222s
The group's performance...
Practice is the greatest teacher, that is undoubtedly true. You may find the "mantra" that we have been using in our Facebook group ( link ), I always said that "maths must come out", that the hit rate of around 56% combined with the average multiplier is a law that cannot be avoided in the long run. You have to make it and you will make a profit, even though your savings will fluctuate, as illustrated by the Rothschild Group's April position.
In this blog post, you'll learn all about one of the biggest challenges of being a professional sports bettor, variance, how to make it bearable and why these basketball sports betting odds are the best on the market. Let's get started!
1) Summarise the results
The group was set up last summer for ourselves and a narrow subscriber base of Royalsports, the predecessor of FBO. We have been preparing our members for at least four months now that there will be a negative period sooner or later, because as we have discussed: there are laws of value capture. And let's admit it, we've had a pretty good run: since July 2023, we've not only not had a negative month, it's been a rarity not to have a good month.
There are two very expensive basketball analysts ("professional tipsters") in the group, who have overperformed by a lot, so it was really only a matter of time before a down period came. April is still 10 days away, so I wouldn't be surprised if they end the month around break even or with a small profit. - Obviously a loss of around 10 bets (ROI of -9.21%) is unlikely to turn into a profit of 10-18 bets for the month, so it is safe to say that this will be the first month since last summer that we will end the month with a break-even or a loss.
I tell you in every video that the 56% of the analysis becomes a winner and I point out the volatility and even that there are losing months. So I cannot be "accused" of not telling these important parts of the value betting profession. I am a little annoyed, though - and not because of the result, it is a momentary position, we are still profitable and making profits, no doubt about that - but I would have been much happier if I had not had to start the introduction of the website with a blog post like this. I have worked very hard - we have, I must single out my co-author László - to provide something you have not experienced before and I would have been much happier if we were currently in outstanding profit, so you can see the service.
Of course I am not discouraged, I have been a value bettor for eight years, I am aware of the quality of our service and I want to give you the best, so I encourage you to compare these results with what I have said in the Facebook group and you will see how true it is that what I have said is not a "balloon", a non-functional and fake thing, but a very serious investment opportunity, which is indeed subject to fluctuations.
2) I shared the same value bets in the Facebook group!
I took over the Facebook group on the last day of March, and since then I've started building our community. It's no secret that I'm not too sympathetic to tipster pages and I don't hide the fact that a good and professional value betting page (or we can call it a ""tipster page"") is like a Michelin star restaurant menu: If you see 10-20 groups and that they won't even take your "tips", then run away, but far away. That's why we only offer three services, because we really do work with the best and most expensive partners. I've shared my own bets from the Rockefeller tennis group and the Rothschild basketball group, and the results have been outstanding, as you've seen.
If you have followed my posts and found my bets and "tips" valuable, then you have mostly been positive about the Rothschild Group's basketball ratings, because I have shared a good deal of them. The quality of the value bets has not changed since then, it's just that in the previous months the partners had a hit rate of around 58-60% instead of 56% ('23 July 80%) which has naturally corrected, because even though it's definitely coming out on the elbow, the hit rate of around 56% is a mathematical assumption!
3) Proof of our credibility!
In the group, I got that I might be a bit immodest (no offense, the commenter wrote this out of goodwill, as constructive criticism) . But you see, I'm not telling you a lie. Losing bets are just as much in the statistics and I certainly take them. I don't have a "oracle" and I don't foresee which one in that 56% will win, because then I would obviously just do that. I'm a professional value bettor first and do FBO second, so me cheating on 100% that you won't get is completely contrary to everything I stand for.
It may sound conceited when I say that there is no other credible and professional provider in the market today like us, but if you look behind that statement, you will see that it is not just a big statement: if what I offer were not profitable, I would not offer a 60 Day Money Back Guarantee. (which is conditional on proper follow up) Also, I would not put my face on it, I would not want to be instructive by recording videos, writing articles and so on... I would engage in professional debate with anyone, I just see that there is no demand for it from the service provider side: tipster sites are in the business of "getting away with it". I "scold" them enough, but it's worth seeing that since I've gone public, several sites have introduced a money-back guarantee (not as comprehensive as here, but at least something has started..)
Or there is a "provider" where you can at least meet a face, so someone else has started to take up the baton.(it's another matter that there are obvious lies on the website, it's pretended that they employ their own tipsters and so on..) but the direction is good here too... Or to say nothing else, a third site is giving away free months. In fact, I know of two sites that have shamelessly started to take my sentences verbatim, especially highlighting the fact that they take their own "tips" (well, yes, it's just quite obvious that they rewrite the coupons as if they were taking hundreds of thousands of them) and have almost completely copied the Google Forms model of the Capital Building Project, the questions are almost the same..
STo me, all this shows that the direction is right! In less than a month, I have managed to get tipster sites to start including some sort of guarantees in their services after all, and this free month sharing is also to try to keep their "core base" together, to keep them "with you", since there is a high chance of overlap between the people who view my posts and their subscribers (we are talking about a group of 10 000 people + I share posts in many other groups)
And this will ultimately contribute to making YOU / YOURS, as consumers, better off! You may not subscribe to the FBO, you may not like my mentality, but what we have managed to achieve - and these are facts, not conceit - is that if you go to another site, say, even if it's not on the same level professionally as us, you can at least get some sort of guarantees / free periods etc, so you can get better conditions than before we came along.
I am very happy about this, as my main goal is to reform the domestic "tipster site" community! And so far I have achieved some very nice results.
4) Value analysers are just as good!
Finally, let me mention that in my 8 years I have met many full-time analysts and "tipsters". In fact, around 2017 I was in this role myself, so I can very easily filter when to let a partner go. There is absolutely no reason to change the Rothschild group. The valuators are just as good, they have made absolutely no changes to the "tip" sending. In most cases, during a period of losses, the less good analysts suddenly start to increase the amount of tips in order to make up for their losses.
They even do something like start placing bets at higher odds to shorten the losing period. - This is also an amateur mistake and should not be allowed. And the examples could go on... In a word: The partners have not changed anything, they continue to provide the same quality work as before. Odds monitoring also shows that they "shake" the markets very hard, and the very sensitive "sharp bookies" are terrified of them, often reducing the odds offered in a very short time (bookmakers known as sharp or Asian can react quickly anyway, compared to a TippmixPRO or any other bureau, but there is so much value in these basketball value bets that they are especially keen to minimise their losses)
Please remember that they are not "hobbyists in a Facebook group", but full-time professional valuers who work for hundreds of Euros a month and provide their services. Of course, the mathematical law applies to them too, fluctuations occur. But if you follow them with the right bets, you have a winner! Then you don't have to worry about betting and you can be sure of a profit in the long run.
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