We have found the safest betting strategy
by
Zsoltfbo
April 19, 2025
in
Professional articles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73bA3TPH2GI&t=62s
"...Let's go for safety instead!"
I think that everyone finds themselves in a dilemma when they want to get into the world of investing: either they take a big risk but in return they get higher returns, or they prefer to be safe and settle for lower returns, but with much lower risk and predictability. The latter is true for me and basically for FBO (fektessbeokosan.hu), so we are not chasing the highest possible numbers at any cost, but keeping the risk factors as low as possible and thus achieving predictable returns.
If I had to use a movie example, on one side of the "frying pan" is the world of the brokers known from the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", and on the other side is the shocking chess match of a world-ranked Hungarian champion like Richard Rapport. These two examples may seem absurd, but they are nevertheless true: the chess example is correct, since it takes small and well-planned moves to win, while the world of the broker, who is always on a high, is a world of huge failures, as in the film.
And to return to our profession: we are value takers, we beat the casinos (bookmakers), based on a few simple mathematical facts and laws and putting them into practice.
Put safety first!
But real life is not a game, there is no post-match restart, if you lose your capital you could be toiling for months, even years, to make up the money you lost. And most "tipster sites" are so easy to talk to, they don't take their own "tips" , but they can show you how much you would win with a big mouth. Well not so much when their famous groups of names are getting themselves down in the stats, which usually won't be long-lived, they are quick to run out and rename the service or simply rewrite the name of the group. It's one thing for one or two, well let's call them "not very responsible" people to play along, but behind them are real flesh and blood people who are losing money, perhaps even zeroing out, just because they believed what they read on the sites. They are not to blame, they are victims and maybe you have been in the same situation, when you put your trust in an opportunity, which turned out to be "not all as it was said", but then it was too late, you could run after your money..
...That's why we only have three services! You should strive for quality and not quantity! And even though I commented on every tipster ad I came across and wrote letters to the sites, they were so high and mighty with their lectures that it was unbelievable. On the one hand, it makes me smile, because I really have 8 years of experience and I still believe in values instead of theory and the FBO is not my livelihood, no doubt about that. If I were to count up how many millions of forints I have spent on either the FBO or its predecessor and how many man-hours I have spent - we have spent, my co-author László and I - in presenting the reality as opposed to the lies of the tipster sites, I would probably prefer not to know the figure. So it's an absolute bottom-up, "messianic" role if you like, at least in the sense that you're not willing to tolerate the way that either you or other bettors are treated by tipsters and put your money at risk without any guarantee or accountability. It is a complete mockery of the sports betting profession.
But what is the concrete practical principle?
Step zero is obviously to choose a provider that has a vested interest in your success and doesn't take lightly the fact that, yes, it's money, people's hard-earned savings are not there to be lost to some bad tipster group. In other words: make the provider CREDITABLE. If you get scammed or are just a mass provider where you are merely a number among all the others, then "feel free to run away".
Once you have completed step zero and selected a truly trustworthy provider, you are ready to set up your bet management:
Professional sports betting ("value betting") is not about only placing winning bets! It is true that we follow very expensive, full-time "tipsters" (value analysts), whose bets are often taken off the books after a few hours or the odds are so low that it is not worth taking them. But that doesn't mean that all our bets are necessarily winners! FIFTY-SIX PERCENT! This is a number that I ask everyone to remember, because it is a DOWNLOAD! If you follow a truly world-class full-time tipster, you will get a hit rate of around 56% in the long run and we EAT HATE, NOT EVEN THE FIRE! And it logically follows from this number that 44% of our bets will either be losers, half-losers or return (void or push), which is why it is possible to have a succession of losing bets. ...But if we bet with ACTION, i.e. we split our capital and bet with MAXIMUM 2-3 % (but it can be less, you have to know how much you can tolerate the fluctuation), we will lock in our savings and we don't have to fear excessive losses even if the losing bets are actually higher. You may ask "well well" , this seems simple, I take "x" percentage of my money I want to invest and place value bets with that. But when do I recalculate my capital? After each bet? Maybe monthly? Every year? What is the protocol? - There is no universal rule, but I will outline all the options and you can decide for yourself which one you want to use.
1) Recalculate your bets every day:
Don't do that! You'll get tangled up in it and the volatility of your investment will be much higher, so you won't get any benefit from it, in exchange for unnecessary stress.
2) At the beginning of each month, you recalculate the percentage of your current balance.
It's what most professional sports bettors do, and it's probably the most popular betting strategy. It's very simple, on the first day of every month you check your current balance, if it's gone down your bets go down, if it's gone up you increase your bets. You always take the agreed percentage, if you bet 2% you bet that, if you bet 1% you bet that, if you bet 3% you bet that.
3) You bet with the same stake (flat stake) over the long term!
We have already discussed that in professional sports betting there will be negative months, and even during the months with the highest returns, the proportion of losing bets can sometimes be higher, this is called natural variance. If you bet with the same stake all the time, making you a "cautious bettor", then if you look at it as a percentage, your stake to capital ratio will decrease steadily, month by month. In other words: if you don't raise your bets even after profitable months, the higher the amount of money, the more you will have to bet, ergo your bets will decrease as a percentage. If you start with 300 000 HUF and bet with, say, 2%, then 6 000 HUF, and then your capital reaches 600 000 HUF in, say, months, then you are betting on 1% instead of 2%, because you have not changed the stake, you have not recalculated.
4) "The hybrid betting strategy"
I'm not very good at choosing names, I came up with this fancy name. It simply refers to the combination of the second and third points, and the love child of the two is the least risky betting strategy I've ever seen. This should be say 300 000 Ft if you can afford it. Sticking with the previous example, bet on say 2%, which is 6 000 Ft per bet. And no matter how much your capital increases, always increase your bets a little bit at a time. For example, even if your savings would allow you to bet, say, 9 000 HUF, you should not jump from the calculated 6 000 HUF, but only bet 6 500 HUF or 7 000 HUF. I think this is the best solution. So you start with say 2%, but no more than 3%(!) , effectively you take the "biggest risk" at the start (of course, we'll treat this as a place, 2-3% is good enough in principle) and month by month your risk taking decreases in percentage, even though you can bet with bigger stakes, but still little by little, and your earnings will increase proportionally.
Important advice!
If you can, bet diversified! That is, don't just follow one analyst, follow several. This is good because statistically there is a very small chance that more than one partner will be in variance at the same time, in a negative period, so that when one is "underperforming" the other will be in or around profit and your volatility will be reduced. So, if your capital allows, your reaction time and your sportsbook account is given, I suggest you follow several of our groups at the same time, just for that reason alone.
As a final thought, a little about volatility: And if you think about it, you have fluctuating capital everywhere! Invest in stocks and shares on the stock exchange, doesn't it fluctuate there? - Of course it does! It fluctuates constantly, depending on the performance of the company in the market. But you don't even have to invest, just keep your earnings in your bank account. Doesn't it fluctuate with inflation? - Of course it does! It changes value all the time. Why should sports betting be any different? Only while you earn a few percent on the stock market in a better case, or your money parked in your bank account drops a few percent in its market value, you can make an average monthly increase of around 30% through value betting. That's the difference!
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