(REQUIRED READING)How to give up on value capture and manage volatility
by
Zsoltfbo
April 19, 2025
in
Professional articles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcRaPth580Q&t=765s
1) You need to manage the volatility correctly!
The myth of "green pipes only"
Earning money from sports betting (not just talking about it, but actually paying for it) is not an easy task. Several things have to come together to beat the bookmakers. I have already proven to you in previous blog articles that you can make money from sports betting by simply using a mathematical law, it is not "black magic" and you don't even need to have a "good ball". You can read these for example here, or here.
Not all of our bets have to work and not all of them could work, we also make value bets (professional sports betting is more accurately called value bets) that lose. By monitoring odds, player news, line-ups, following matches, etc., full-time analysts (tipsters, although I don't like that word so much, it's so worn out) can pick the outcomes that have the best chance of happening. Of course, logic is often defied by life and unexpected outcomes occur. If what is expected always happens, then the bookies could quickly "pull the blinds". So yes, sometimes the more unlikely outcomes do come in.
But not just to talk in "rhetoric", I can give you a concrete example: In the long run, about 44% of our bets will be losers! You can like it or not like it, but it's a basic principle. If you look at our groups, they will come up with the same number: a hit rate of around 56% with an average multiplier of 1.80-1.90. That alone is a sample of several thousands (i.e. the number of bets actually placed) , but I have seen - and bet on - many tens of thousands of bets over the last 8 years, I won't be able to give you an exact number, but I have placed at least 20 000 bets in my lifetime and I probably underestimate)
It's easy to tolerate making a lot of money, but if your earnings drop even minimally, you feel "there's a problem", "if this keeps going on, I'm going to lose". But that is not the case! If you are thinking in days or weeks and you are very badly affected if you find that you are placing losing bets, then I definitely do not recommend value betting for you. Of course this is not only true for us, no matter which side of the sports betting industry you are on, there will be losing bets just the same ( please let go of "daily tutti" , "daily doubles" , "fixed results" , "betting huge odds" , these are not really concepts) This law is true for everyone, if you read anywhere to the contrary, know that they are trying to screw you over!
Are there any win-loss series?
This is a very simplistic formulation, but in the end yes: The discussed hit rate of 56% should come out of a large sample with an average coefficient of 1.80-1.90. There will be days when we have 4-5 losing bets in a row and there will be days when all our bets come in! If you like, you will have a series of alternating bets. The key is to choose a betting strategy that will protect your capital sufficiently in the event of a down period. This can be seen in the in the blog article belowI wrote in detail, please read it!
How is the capital building project now?
So far 5 days of May have passed and we are 6.53 bets down. That's not a huge swing, but obviously if you followed my April work on Facebook group (Obviously, I would have been happiest if we had started very strongly, but mathematical regularity is not particularly interested in that. 🙂 )
2) HOW SPECIFICALLY SHOULD YOU BET?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkFyKrbZYQk
If you learn and apply these few basics, you can successfully follow groups. These often seem like small tips, but they can make a big difference to your success!
Where to bet?
The more sportsbooks you have registered with, the better conditions you can secure for yourself.In principle, the TippmixPRO account is sufficient, but there will be bets - few of them - that you will not be able to place if you only have TippmixPRO. If you have enough funds to comfortably keep them in one account, you don't need to split them up. But if you almost have enough to use other bureaus, it's worth registering elsewhere. You can read about what we recommend in the group descriptions, each group has a slightly different recommended sportsbook "guard."
How long will it take to open notifications?
The quicker you bet, the better the odds you'll get and the more money you'll make. Basically, we have put the desired reaction time in the description of each group, so you need to see which ones you can follow.
How do you search for teams? - It seems trivial but it's far from it!
We send everything out as a picture. We share our own bets, so to speak, with all the information you need. Some pages may have some discrepancies in the names of the teams and some sportsbooks may have a more accurate/weaker search engine.
Basically, all you have to do is start typing the name of one of the two teams into the search engine and it will bring it up. If it says no matches, then try the name of the other team. If there are still no hits, feel free to write to us on Telegram.
How to use the menu items?
The quickest and easiest way to place a bet is to type in the name of a team or player, enter the details of the match and then click on the menu item for which you have a bet. For example, if it was a handicap, you would select the handicap menu. If it's a half time bet, you would purposefully select the "half time" menu item.
What bets should you place?
The more groups you follow, the smaller the bets you have to choose. Divide your capital into 100 parts, so that you get 1%. If you bet on all our groups, you should bet with a maximum of 1%. If you follow two groups, you should bet a maximum of 1.5-2%. If you bet three, you should bet between 2-3% maximum.
We have a very clear and good article on this, you should definitely check it out: https://smartfundsacademy.eu/2024/04/25/megtalaltuk-a-legbiztonsagosabb-fogadasi-strategiat/
What is the maximum variation you can bet with?
A deviation is when the multiplier of the posted bet is reduced by the bureau. If you react in the foreseeable future, you will still be able to do the posted multipliers in 99% of the cases! If later, they will drop somewhat. Maximum 10% odds deviation fits in! So if we send out a value bet at say 2.0 odds, you can still take it at around 1.90.
In fact, if you rarely react late, you can even have a bigger deviation once in a while, but don't make it a system, because "the math has to work out", you need to have an average odds of 1.80-190 to make a profitable sports bet.
How do you interpret handicap bets?
Negative handicap
AH -0.25
In this case, your chosen team must win by at least one goal, or, if the result is a draw, you lose half the stake and get half the stake back. Otherwise you lose the bet.
AH -0.5
Here you only win the full odds if your team wins, otherwise you lose the bet.
AH -0.75
If the team wins by at least 2 goals, the win is full, if only 1, half of the bet is multiplied by the odds and that is what you get with your basic bet.
AH -1
2 or more goals will win again, one goal will return the full stake back to your account.
AH -1.25
Again, we need to win by at least 2 goals and here, if the team wins by only 1 goal, we only get half of our bet back.
AH -1.5
Only a win by at least two goals is good for us here
AH -1.75
In this case, the team should win by 3 goals. If it is only 2, then half of your bet is multiplied by the odds and added to the total bet, and this is the amount you see in your account. All other cases will result in a loss.
AH -2
We won by 3 goals, we get our full stake back by 2 goals and the other outcomes don't bode well for us this time either.
Positive handicap
AH +0.25
On the positive side, we usually bet on the weaker team. Then, if the team wins, we get the winnings, if there is a draw, we get half our bet multiplied.
AH +0.5
Then both a win and a draw will give us a full win.
AH +0.75
This is very similar to the previous one, with the addition that if you lose by one goal, you still get half of your stake back.
AH +1
Again, we would compare this variation with the previous one, with the difference that we don't get half of our bet back, but the whole bet in case of a tie.
AH +1.25
What changes here is that in the event of a draw, you get your full stake back and one half of the stake is multiplied by the odds. The rest remains the same.
AH +1.5
This time, all three options will mean a win for us and we will only lose if our team loses by at least 2 goals
AH +1.75
Same as before, but if you lose by 2 goals, you get half of your stake back.
AH +2
Here, losing by two goals also results in a full payback.
3) How should you think?
'A good priest learns until he dies!'
I would be lying if I said that I was not particularly concerned about, say, a Rothschild result in April. What happened was that after 9 consecutive winning months (and anyone can check this on Telegram), we had a losing month.If we look strictly until May 1 (as this month has just started), we can see that including the loss-making April, we are still up nearly 82 bets. If we divide this figure by 10 months, we have made a net profit of almost 9 stakes per month (a stake is the amount you place on bets, we book in the statistics with 10 000 HUF)
These are amazingly good numbers, especially considering that these are major league basketball games(The problem with betting too low on minor league basketball is that it would limit our accounts extremely quickly, if we bet at an office where they do, but they can only be limited there, and since Bet365 has been ousted, we have less room to manoeuvre)
I felt less of the Rothschild result in April, as I bet on the tennis player Rockefeller and Warren alongside him. The Rockefeller closed with almost 10 bets in profit and the Warren closed with a minimal profit, but I would say breakeven. So, if I have to "report" my own results, I can say that I closed April with a loss of 9-10 bets, without any losses in the 9 months before, and with almost fabulous numbers. This is not an unbearable fluctuation, which is why it is important to bet diversified, i.e. if the opportunities are there, follow different analysts specialising in different sports, as the chances of being on a "negative streak" at the same time are statistically very small.
The only way to make the volatility bearable is to bet with good betting management and, if you can, to follow several groups at the same time. Another important argument in our favour is that we send out the bets that we place ourselves as images, and we provide proof of this. The maximum time between placing a bet and posting it is 45 seconds, but in most cases it is less than that. So with us, all the results were replicable, we don't just take a theoretical statistic from somewhere like most sites, you can see the concrete, practical results behind it.
True, this is my own example, but it's probably just as true for others: when I have a really good month and I really make a lot of money, I tend to think of money in numerical terms. So if I'm looking for "10 forints" , then the "10 forints" itself appears in front of me, rather than the factual, percentage-based thinking that yes, it's a nice amount, but basically say 20% or 25% profit.
So I don't think in terms of units, which allows for a much more down-to-earth way of thinking. And when a losing month comes along - although fortunately this is very rare - the same thing "kicks in", so I can see a loss as excessive, which is otherwise very small if I look at it in percentage terms, which is why I follow a bet-management approach.
So if I calculate with the amount put on, even a -10 bet seems like a lot, but if all I do is convert to units and look at the fluctuation on a percentage basis, it's absolutely not much. It may seem like a small nuance of difference, but mentally it is quite significant, especially if you have been betting for a long time and can put larger amounts of money down.
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